Regime change is the use of covert or overt policies to overthrow foreign governments. It is usually used to achieve specific policy goals that would be difficult or impossible to accomplish through diplomacy alone. These goals include supplanting odious regimes, expanding American influence and security, and supporting democracy. But the empirical record shows that armed regime-change missions rarely succeed as intended and often produce unintended consequences, including humanitarian crises, state failure, and terrorist attacks on the intervening nation and beyond.
For a regime-change operation to be legitimate, it should have the support of the target population and a credible alternative ready to assume power once the old one falls. That was the case in South Africa when sanctions galvanized international pressure on a detestable regime and paved the way for Nelson Mandela’s ascent to the presidency.
To be truly successful, a regime-change operation needs to be limited in duration and scope. It must also be aimed at a particular government or leaders and not the population as a whole. Otherwise, it will harm the people of the targeted country and create a long-term problem for America’s future policy objectives.
Despite the lackluster track record of forcible regime change, some in the policy community continue to advocate this strategy as a means to advance US interests abroad. It is essential that American officials understand what regime-change missions actually look like and the difficulties they typically face before advocating for them.
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